Why Black Friday (or the whole week or month) matters
Shopping holidays are a global phenomenon that have now shifted greatly into online shopping events. Originally a promotional, volume-driving tool, the shopping holiday became a critical growth driver for e-commerce sites like Amazon and Alibaba, which began the 11/11 Singles’ Day in China, especially when times were good, interest rates were low and the name of the game was outselling the competition.
The world is very different now. Across the world consumer confidence is challenged and the costs of both living and of doing business have risen; they don’t look like they’re coming down any time soon. But the shifts in the holiday sketch other big stories: the rise of AI in shopping-facing search (and the headache of GEO for brands).
Some of these deeper trends, then, become more telling than the amounts of money spent (amid high prices, high spending often obscures an economy simply treading water).
The signals
- Topline growth: Mastercard SpendingPulse reported that U.S. retail sales were up +4.1% compared to Black Friday 2024.
- E-commerce continues to grow: E-commerce sales grew +10.4% year-over-year (YOY). Salesforce reported total U.S. online spending reached $18 billion, a 3% jump.
- Order volume down: Order volumes fell 1% as average selling prices rose 7%, according to Salesforce, as units per transaction dropped 2% year over year.
- AI “influenced” sales: Salesforce figures worldwide indicate that AI and AI agents “influenced” $14.2 billion of sales (though finding total global spending is much trickier).
- Caution worldwide: While higher prices have appeared to drive topline growth, the picture of mid-single digit growth is echoed across Europe, Brazil, and Australia, according to Mastercard forecasts.
Rethinking holiday shopping
Liquidity really matters to shoppers in times of economic stress, with many purchases for the holiday season sometimes being pulled forward to October, according to Intuit Mailchimp research from earlier this year.
“The era of the impulse holiday spree is ending,” says Joe Shasteen, RetailNext’s global manager of advanced analytics, in comments to Retail Dive. “Consumers are in control, and they’re treating Black Friday as one data point in a much longer hunt for value.”
Source: warc.com