What you will find in the article:
- Study reveals higher renewal rates for broadcast TV than streaming services.
- Only 44% of streaming series are renewed by major SVOD platforms.
- Freshman series on major SVODs dropped from 50% to 42% by 2025.
- Netflix renewed around 50% of its U.S. shows between 2022 and 2025.
- Audience retention is key for renewal decisions in streaming series.
As major streaming services work to control programming costs, a new study finds that streaming series are struggling with cancellation rates that are higher than broadcast TV.
New streaming hits are also in serious decline, with freshman series falling from half of U.S. scripted output on the major SVODs in 2022 to 42% in 2025. HBO Max was the only major service where freshman series increased as a share of total premieres in 2025, while only Apple TV and Prime Video increased their number of new shows.
“The Show Must Go Off,” a new report from Luminate examining renewals and cancellations in the post-peak TV era, found that only 44% of streaming series are renewed by major SVOD platforms.
By contrast, broadcast networks now post significantly higher renewal rates than streaming services and cable channels, reversing the once-common assumption that series had a better chance of survival on streaming than on traditional television.
Broadcast networks renewed 65% of their output in 2025, according to Luminate.
The number of new streaming hits is also declining. Freshman series fell from 50% of U.S. scripted output on major SVOD platforms in 2022 to 42% in 2025.
HBO Max was the only major service where freshman series increased as a share of total premieres in 2025, while only Apple TV and Prime Video increased the number of new shows they launched.
The study also found that, despite its reputation for aggressive cancellations, Netflix renewed the most shows among major SVOD services between 2022 and 2025, renewing around 50% of its U.S. slate on average.
When it comes to streaming series, audience retention across a full season is the strongest predictor of renewal or cancellation.
Shows have a much better chance of being renewed if more than half of viewers who start a season go on to finish it. Cancelled series in Luminate’s dataset averaged 44% audience retention.
Luminate’s streaming viewership data also showed that SVOD shows with more than 50% audience retention between the season premiere and finale are usually renewed.
However, every streaming service appears to have a different threshold for what it considers acceptable performance.
Apple TV appears willing to accept lower audience retention, particularly for prestige series. The Studio, for example, recorded just 28% retention over 120 days.
The findings suggest that as streaming services become more disciplined about content spending, completion rates, audience retention and viewer engagement are becoming critical metrics for determining whether a series gets another season.
Source: tvtechnology.com