What you will find in the article:
- Back-to-school season projected at $85.42 billion in 2026.
- Majority of shoppers start purchasing by early July.
- Consumer electronics lead spending for both college and K-12 families.
- Digital sales expected to grow faster than physical store sales.
- Marketers advised to launch campaigns in June or July.
How big is back-to-school spending?
Expected to hit $85.42 billion in US retail sales this year, back-to-school is accelerating 3.3% year-over-year, up from 2.5% annual growth in 2025, per EMARKETER. A full $53.06 billion will come from physical retail sales. Another $32.36 billion is expected from back-to-school season retail ecommerce sales. A big driver behind the season is college-bound students, whose families will spend $36.16 billion, up 3.9% YoY. Families with students in grades K-12 will spend $49.26 billion this back-to-school season, up a more modest 2.8% from 2025. College-bound students represent a 42.3% share of back-to-school retail sales, up from 39.9% in 2022. The season has expanded from backpacks, school supplies, and new outfits to include big-ticket electronics, dorm furniture, and other accessories for college life.
When does back-to-school shopping actually start?
The season begins earlier than most marketing calendars assume. Two-thirds (67%) of back-to-school shoppers had already begun purchasing by early July, per the NRF. Price anxiety drives the early start: 51% of back-to-school families said they were shopping earlier due to concerns about tariff-related price increases, per the same survey. The season now effectively opens in June, overlapping with mid-summer deal events like Prime Day, and stretches through September as college move-in dates arrive. For marketers, a campaign that launches in August reaches a market where most of the spending decisions are already made.
What do families buy for back-to-school, and where?
Consumer electronics anchors the back-to-school season, serving as the leading category for college students and K-12 families, per the NRF. Clothing and accessories was the next-highest category for K-12 students, while the second-highest category for college students was dorm or apartment furnishings. While total physical store sales will still be greater than retail ecommerce sales for back-to-school, digital sales are growing faster. Back-to-school ecommerce sales are expected to climb 5.6% over 2025, while physical store sales are expected up only 1.9% for the back-to-school season, per EMARKETER. Digital channels are increasing their share of back-to-school purchases.
How are tariffs and the economy shaping back-to-school 2026?
Price pressure is the season's backdrop. Retailers pulled inventory forward to get ahead of a fresh set of tariffs, with early peak-season buying masking a cautious demand outlook, per a June 2026 EMARKETER article, while energy-driven inflation erodes purchasing power, per EMARKETER. The same value-seeking behavior reshaping retail broadly, from warehouse clubs to off-price chains, concentrates back-to-school spending around deals.
This suggests 2026's season will again reward early, price-led promotions over late brand campaigns.
How should marketers plan back-to-school campaigns in 2026?
Match the calendar and the budget-stretched shopper. Priorities:
• Launch in June or July, not August. With two-thirds of shoppers buying by early July, awareness and offers must land before summer deal events capture the budget.
• Lead with price certainty. Tariff-era shoppers respond to locked-in prices, bundles, and price-match guarantees that remove the fear of buying too early or too late.
• Merchandise the full basket. Electronics carry the highest ticket, but supplies and apparel drive trip frequency.
• Treat college as a separate campaign. The college season has different timing, bigger baskets, and dorm-and-tech categories that K-12 messaging misses.
• Coordinate with tentpole events. Align back-to-school offers with July deal moments, where comparison shoppers are already active, rather than competing against them.
Source: emarketer.com